Traditional biomass accounts for some 9 percent of the world’s total
energy requirements, still more than is provided by modern renewables
collectively. Nonetheless, modern renewables, and modern biomass with
it, is catching up fast. The share of traditional biomass fuels has
remained fairly static over the last decade or two, while modern
renewables have soared.
Renewable energy is the fastest growing source of electricity
generation, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA)
International Energy Outlook 2013 Reference case, projecting an average
2.8 percent per year growth from 2010 to 2040. For example, the U.S.
Energy Information Agency (EIA) projects renewable energy consumption
for electricity and heat generation in all sectors of the U.S. to
increase by 2.2 percent in 2014, compared with 3.6 percent growth in
2013.
However, while traditional biomass use remains static, this sets the
context for a significant increase in bioenergy demand for modern
applications. Widely anticipated in the coming years, it’s being driven
by high oil prices, climate change and renewable energy policy action
and security of energy supply concerns. Since bioenergy spans a vast
range of resources from wood and pellets through to energy crops and
waste streams it offers a diverse and often readily available energy
resource.
Bioenergy also presents an opportunity for rural development and for
the agricultural sector in particular, potentially helping to meet key
social development goals. Indeed, bioenergy signals a significant new
market for agricultural producers.
As with any fledgling market, there are inevitably issues to be
overcome if bioenergy is to truly thrive. For instance production of
agricultural products such as maize when used for bioenergy have become
an issue of contention for some – think of the food versus fuel debates
of years past– while others have questioned the sustainability and
greenhouse gas balance of some energy crops, for instance poorly sited
palm oil plantations. Sustainability issues aside, there is also a
requirement for the further development of a flexible international
trading market for biomass and related products, such as pellets, to
securely match supply and demand in various global markets.
Along with hydropower and geothermal, biomass power and heat is,
nonetheless, among the most mature renewable energy technologies, with
large potential markets for second generation biofuels from agricultural
and forestry waste streams and from energy crops grown on otherwise
unproductive land.
A Future Market for Biomass
Even a casual analysis suggests that renewable energy markets are
projected to grow strongly in the coming decade and beyond, led by
policies such as European Commission 2020 Directives to Member States,
which are expected to accelerate the development of renewable heating
for example.
Energy policy will remain a key influence in the future development
of bioenergy markets. In particular, analysis such as REN-21’s latest
Global Financial Report (GFR), highlights a range of future policies to
support renewable heating and cooling in buildings as well those
addressing the integration of variable output renewables. Measures
include the possible development of new market rules for balancing
services, demand response and other grid reliability services, which
would favor the development of controllable thermal generation, such as
biomass.
Biomass also offers a key mechanism for the use of renewable energy
in industrial applications and has largely dominated the sector to date
as far as renewables are concerned. Though most often seen in
applications where there is both a ready stream of process waste
materials and a considerable demand for heat and process steam - such as
bagasse from sugar mills or wood residues from the pulp and paper
industries – there is evidence that technological developments are set
to expand the use of bioenergy in industrial settings. There are also
opportunities for the chemical industry to utilise solid biomass and
liquid biofuels as industrial feedstocks for organic chemistry in the
future.
As a result, the IEA’s 2012 World Energy Outlook, for example,
projects that, by 2035, bioenergy use for heating could grow by more
than 60 percent.
Outlook on Biomass
The EU is by far the biggest pellet consumer worldwide, burning some 15
million tonnes in 2012. According the latest available figures from
Aebiom, the European biomass energy association, biomass accounted for
8.4 percent of the total final energy consumption in Europe in 2011,
while in some Baltic countries, such as Estonia, Latvia, Finland and
Sweden, the figure is above 25 percent. The trade group adds that EU
pellet consumption for heating has grown by more than one million tonnes
per year since 2010.
Looking ahead, in a recent Aebiom forecast scenario, in 2020 the
overall share of renewable energy in Europe will have reached 20.7
percent, with biomass, including transport, covering 56.5 percent of
total energy.
Their analysis of the European Member State National Renewable Energy
Action Plans (NREAPs) concludes that the total contribution of
bioenergy in 2020 will be 138.3 Mtoe, with heating by far the most
important sector - accounting for 65 percent of the total while
transport accounts for 21 percent and electricity 14 percent.
Another perspective on the future for the European bioenergy supply
chain comes in a new report from Rabobank. It concludes that increasing
competition for solid biomass, such as wood pellets, will create space
for relatively novel biomass sources to enter the market. They argue
that the practical challenges of using agricultural residues such as
straw and stover will be overcome because their supply costs will be
among the lowest. Consequently Rabobank believes that agricultural
residues will have an increasing role in the use and potentially trade
of biomass for energy by 2020.
"The importance of bioenergy will continue to grow in Europe as it is
one of the cheapest renewable energy options, and one of few to supply
continuous renewable heat and power on a large scale," explains Rabobank
analyst Paul Bosch. "However, as the price of solid biomass increases,
the search for non-forestry alternative biomass options will continue
to rise."
Their analysis finds the business case for agricultural residues
compelling, concluding that compared with wood pellet co-firing,
dedicated agricultural residue-fired plants could save between EUR 15
million and EUR 63 million, before taking subsidies into account.
Bosch continues: "Supply chain issues, which can arise from sourcing
from a large number of suppliers, have so far prevented the widespread
exploitation of agricultural residues, but with demand for bioenergy on
the rise globally and a slow supply response, the question is whether
bioenergy producers can afford not to tackle these issues."
Signaling an opportunity for a positive outlook he concluded:
"Initiatives in the UK and Denmark are showing that the business case
for agricultural residues in bioenergy projects can work, on a
relatively large scale, indicating the potential to replicate similar
projects across Europe."
In considering a global forecast for bioenergy in the coming years, a
recent study from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and
the German Biomass Research Centre (DBFZ) “Biomass Potential in
Africa,” is perhaps instructive.
At IRENA’s behest, the DBFZ collected recent studies assessing
bioenergy potential in Africa, compared their various methodologies,
benchmarked the results, and identified the key elements. The
organization concluded that the studies show an enormous range of
calculated biomass potentials, for example representing a productive
area range of 1.5 million to 150 million ha. Similarly, the various
assessments indicate a potential for energy crops from 0 PJ/yr to 13,900
PJ/yr, between 0 PJ/yr and 5400 PJ/yr for forestry biomass, and 10
PJ/yr to 5254 PJ/yr for residues and waste in Africa by 2020.
The analysis drily observes: “Due to the large range in results
presented by the reviewed studies, no definite figures regarding the
availability of biomass in Africa can be provided.”
But then, as much in Africa as anywhere else, with resources, demand,
markets and technology, like nature itself, bioenergy really is a world
of possibilities.
David Appleyard, Contributing Editor
http://www.renewableenergyworld.com
